CAIRO, Egypt – Tensions are quietly building between Egypt and Somalia, according to sources familiar with the relationship, who spoke to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The friction stems from delays in implementing a military cooperation agreement signed by the two countries in August 2024.
The rising strain comes amid what sources describe as a “major and unexpected shift” in Somalia’s foreign policy, marked by an unprecedented rapprochement with Ethiopia and a cooling of ties with Cairo.
Sources say Egyptian officials have grown increasingly frustrated, viewing Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s actions as a “sudden U-turn.” Not long ago, the Somali leader had positioned himself as a close ally of Cairo, working together to counter regional threats — particularly Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa and the contentious issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
A political shock for Cairo
According to the sources, Somalia’s sudden pivot has caused a “political shock” among Egyptian policymakers, especially as Mogadishu’s cooperation with Addis Ababa appears to deepen.
In response, Cairo has begun reconsidering the military agreement, which had envisioned deploying more than a thousand Egyptian special forces to fight Al-Shabaab militants in areas like Aadan Yabaal and Cadale in Middle Shabelle.
Sources added that Cairo feels “great disappointment” in President Mohamud’s commitment to security cooperation, accusing him of failing to create the necessary conditions to move the agreement forward.
“There is now a growing sentiment in Egyptian decision-making circles that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud can no longer be considered a reliable partner,” one source said, noting that plans to deploy Egyptian troops have been effectively frozen — though not officially canceled — as Cairo adopts a more cautious stance.
Officials are concerned that the shift in Somalia’s policies could jeopardize years of Egyptian investment in Mogadishu — both in terms of military aid and the broader effort to build up Somali diplomatic and security institutions.
Egypt’s growing skepticism
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, representing President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, attended an extraordinary summit of African Union troop-contributing countries last Friday in Entebbe, Uganda. Despite Somalia’s strategic importance to Egypt, Sisi’s absence was seen as a subtle political message signaling Cairo’s waning enthusiasm.
At the summit, Madbouly reaffirmed Egypt’s support for Somalia’s unity but did not hide Cairo’s disappointment. He criticized the “lack of clarity on priorities” shown by Somali leaders in 2024, which he said has weakened the progress made by Somalia’s National Army in combating terrorism.
While the summit concluded with statements supporting Somalia, Egyptian sources indicated that Cairo is now less inclined to provide direct military assistance, citing Mogadishu’s failure to offer firm assurances regarding their bilateral agreements.
Suspicion deepens
Major General Mohamed Al-Hemshari, an advisor at Egypt’s Nasser Higher Military Academy, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Sisi’s absence from the Uganda summit was partly due to the low level of international participation.
Only Uganda’s president, the African Union Commission chair, and the IGAD head attended at a high level. Most other countries were represented by vice presidents or defense ministers.
Al-Hemshari also pointed out that regional tensions over the Nile Basin Framework Agreement — a sensitive issue for Egypt — further reduced the summit’s significance for Cairo.
He emphasized that the real players shaping Somali affairs today are Turkey, Ethiopia (acting as a proxy for the United States and Israel), and some Arab states — none of whom were prominently engaged at the summit.
Meanwhile, Somali political analyst Ahmed Qaysowd told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the Somali government’s recent overtures to Addis Ababa have fueled Cairo’s suspicions. He added that the recent arrival of nearly 300 Turkish soldiers in Mogadishu to assist with security operations has further complicated the situation.
Qaysowd said these developments have likely prompted Egypt to reconsider its approach to Somalia, noting that earlier this year, Cairo had provided weapons and equipment to support the Somali federal government — a sign of the now-strained partnership.
He added that even the previously promising tripartite cooperation between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea has been impacted, with Eritrean officials voicing concern that Somalia’s embrace of Ethiopia is both premature and poorly timed.