From chaos to calm: Somali piracy’s remarkable decline

Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – In 2011, piracy was a formidable challenge, with a staggering 212 attacks occurring in expansive waters, encompassing the Indian Ocean, Somali territories, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden.

The financial toll? A significant hit to the global economy, estimated at billions by the World Bank. These pirates audaciously hijacked ships even 1,000 nautical miles off Somalia’s shores, demanding ransoms.

Between 2005 and 2012, these ransom payments accumulated to over US$400 million.

Initially, the wave of piracy seemed an insurmountable challenge. Although world-renowned navies and the shipping industry took anti-piracy measures, tangible results remained elusive.

The popular sentiment leaned towards a ground solution: transformative state-building in Somalia.

However, the daunting task of embarking on such a mission, especially in light of the US’s struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan, meant no immediate takers.

From rampant attacks to relative calm 

Against all expectations. By 2012, attacks plummeted to just 10. Furthermore, between 2013 and 2023, only two hijackings were reported.

What led to this extraordinary shift? The Somali piracy phenomenon was dissected through intensive research on international diplomacy and military strategies spanning three decades, along with a colleague with expertise in military tactics.

We found consensus among scholars and experts: four critical measures played a decisive role in curbing piracy:

  • International naval coordination, especially by the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members: the US, UK, France, China, and Russia.
  • Robust self-defense protocols, including deploying armed guards, were adopted by shipping owners and flag states.
  • A robust legal framework facilitating the prosecution and incarceration of pirates.
  • Regional initiatives empowering regional and Somali entities to detain pirates.

The uniqueness of the Somali situation wasn’t just these strategies. The global community’s consensus to endorse and fund these measures was the real triumph.

Overcoming collective challenges 

In theory, confronting piracy should have been a collective challenge, given its “public good” nature. The safety benefits were undeniable, yet the steep costs made many reluctant contributors.

States and shipping companies hesitated, hoping others would bear the responsibility. Overcoming this ‘free-rider’ challenge was pivotal.

We identified three primary reasons for the Somali success:

  • Firstly, the pirates targeted ships from major global powers and prominent shipping corporations. Consequently, nations like France took militaristic initiatives, with the US shaping an all-encompassing strategy.
  • Secondly, international bodies such as the European Union and NATO’s participation, coupled with China and Russia’s interventions, bolstered global commitment.
  • Thirdly, Somali regional and federal governments played instrumental roles, permitting force usage against pirates and cooperating in establishing pirate prisons funded by global contributors.

Yet, this success might be challenging to emulate. The Somali incident uniquely aligned global, regional, local, and private sector interests. Contrarily, local cooperation remains sparse in regions like the Gulf of Guinea. Similarly, while addressing West Africa’s coups, global powers find their interests often clashing.

Ultimately, the unparalleled synergy of interests across different actors made the Somali anti-piracy initiative remarkably effective.