Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – Somalia finds itself in a precarious situation. Even as the national army and its associated clan militias make significant headway against al-Shabab, forcing its fighters out of central Somali territories, the security outlook remains troubling.

The reason is simple: despite losing their operational bases, displaced militants still threaten the nation’s stability.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s August 2022 declaration of a “total war” against al-Shabab seems to bear fruit.

The militant group, known for its ties with al-Qaida, has diminished its strongholds in central Somalia thanks to the combined efforts of Somali forces and international air raids.

However, victory on the battlefield doesn’t necessarily translate to peace on the home front.

Former deputy commander of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, Ismail Dahir Osman, sounded cautionary.

“Militants fleeing the front lines are dispersing into rural zones, and many stealthily infiltrate major cities, such as Mogadishu, our capital. They’re armed, dangerous, and have sinister plans,” he warned.

Colonel Abdullahi Ali Maow, another former Somali intelligence official, shared Osman’s concerns. “The relocation of these militants is far from the endgame; it presents fresh hurdles for our burgeoning security units, especially in urban areas,” Maow opined.

He added that these militants, akin to a frog, are adept at lying low to evade the prying eyes of the law. They intend to seek sanctuary in urban spaces to escape retribution.

Fleeing militants

The very nature of these fleeing fighters makes them a significant concern. Omar Abdi Jimale, a prominent Somali political and security analyst, explained, “These escapees possess years of combat skills coupled with zealous ideology.

Such a combination makes them adept at launching terror activities in unfamiliar terrains.”

Jimale illustrated their modus operandi, stating that they blend into the populace, recuperate, and strategize their next moves.

Mahad Wehlie, another analyst, posited a different perspective, suggesting that the menace of these fleeing combatants, especially the lower-tiered ones, is lesser than the havoc they wreaked from their earlier strongholds.

“Many try assimilating with locals, with many possibly relinquishing the militant path. But, the key for our security agencies is to reduce this threat to a level manageable by local enforcement and intelligence units, supplemented by community support,” Wehlie asserted.

Comprehensive strategy

But Maow, in his assessment, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that the total elimination of the threat would only be feasible if al-Shabab’s higher echelons and international affiliates were neutralized.

“As long as their primary leaders and foreign recruits are functional, the peril from indoctrinated young Somali combatants remains. These top brass need to be neutralized – either incarcerated or eliminated,” he stressed.

He advocates for a broad-based strategy, emphasizing international collaboration, enhanced intelligence interchange, and tackling the core issues spurring militancy in strife-torn zones.

“The path to securing peace in Somalia, and by extension, the Horn of Africa and the world, hinges on collaborative endeavors between government security agencies and the Somali populace,” Maow added.

In a related development, aiming to fortify the nation’s stance against al-Shahab militants, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre announced plans to request the U.N. General Assembly to lift the prevailing international arms embargo on Somalia.

This move, he believes, would bolster Somalia’s ability to decisively deal with al-Shabab – an entity designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.N. and the U.S. and one that has been in conflict with the Somali government for over a decade and a half.