As Somalia approaches one of the most politically sensitive moments in its modern history, the debate surrounding President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has evolved far beyond a simple election contest. The country now faces a profound national dilemma: should Somalia prioritize continuity and state-building under an experienced leader, or must it defend democratic accountability and constitutional order at all costs?
The answer is far from simple. Both sides of the political divide present compelling arguments, reflecting genuine, deeply rooted fears about Somalia’s fragile future.
The Argument for Continuity: Institutional Resilience and Security
Supporters of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud view him as one of the few Somali leaders with the experience, international credibility, and political resilience necessary to guide the country through a highly volatile transition.
Unlike many of his rivals, Mohamud has governed Somalia during two distinct political eras. He first served as president from 2012 to 2017, a period when Somalia was emerging from years of transitional governance and attempting to rebuild foundational national institutions. After five years in the opposition, he returned to office in 2022 with a broader understanding of both state governance and clan-based political negotiation.
To his advocates, this depth of experience is an invaluable asset for a country still struggling with institutional fragility. Proponents point to several major milestones that have elevated Somalia’s standing both regionally and globally:
- Diplomatic and International Gains: Under Mohamud’s leadership, Somalia secured a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2025– 2026 term, marking the country’s return to the council for the first time in over five decades. Additionally, his administration successfully lobbied for the lifting of the long-standing international arms embargo, a move supporters argue restores true sovereignty to Somalia’s national defense capabilities.
- Regional Integration: Somalia’s admission into the East African Community (EAC) represented another major economic and geopolitical milestone, opening doors for expanded trade and regional political influence.
- The Counter-Insurgency Campaign: Perhaps the strongest case for continuity rests on the government’s military offensive against Al-Shabaab. Since 2022, the administration has overseen major operations to reclaim territory, particularly in central Somalia, pairing military force with local governance stabilization. Advocates warn that changing leadership mid-stream could dangerously disrupt coordination between the federal government, local clans, and international security partners.
The Argument for Change: Safeguarding Constitutional Legitimacy
Despite these achievements, criticism of the administration has intensified sharply. Opposition groups argue that Somalia’s democratic progress is facing an existential threat and that the government risks undermining the very institutions it claims to strengthen.
The controversy escalated dramatically following parliament’s vote to amend the constitution, extending presidential and parliamentary terms from four years to five. The move effectively postponed the scheduled May elections by a year. To critics, this decision crossed a dangerous political line.
The Echoes of 2021
The backlash is particularly intense because it mirrors Somalia’s recent history. In 2021, former President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (“Farmaajo”) attempted a similar two-year mandate extension, triggering armed confrontations in the streets of Mogadishu. At the time, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was among the loudest voices condemning the extension. Today, critics accuse him of repeating the exact behavior he once labeled a threat to national survival.
This constitutional shift has triggered severe domestic friction:
- Federal Fragmentation: Key Federal Member States—most notably Puntland and Jubaland—have expressed deep alarm, boycotting key elements of the federal electoral process.
- Erosion of Trust: The opposition coalition argues that genuine stability cannot be built solely on military victories or foreign accolades. It requires trust between political actors, adherence to constitutional timelines, and inclusive national dialogue.
Mapping the Divide: Two Visions for One Nation
At its core, this crisis exposes two fundamentally different theories on how a fragile state should progress.
Conclusion: The Real Challenge Ahead
Ultimately, Somalia’s future may depend less on a single political figure and more on whether its leadership class can find common ground during this highly sensitive window.
The country desperately needs both security and democratic legitimacy; they are not mutually exclusive, but deeply interdependent. Military victories cannot guarantee longterm peace if domestic political trust collapses entirely. Conversely, democratic processes cannot successfully mature if rampant insecurity overwhelms the state’s capacity to govern.
Whether President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud maintains his course or a new leadership coalition emerges, Somalia’s fundamental challenge remains unchanged: building institutions resilient enough to survive individual leaders and shifting political rivalries.
As this crisis unfolds, Somalis are not merely debating who should govern—they are debating what kind of state Somalia wants to become.
Abdi Hilowle is University Lecturer & Political Commentator
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