Beijing (Caasimada Online) – Loollanka u dhexeeya Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha, Madaxweyne Trump wuxuu wadaa weerar dhaqaale. Laakiin hoggaamiyaha Shiinaha, Xi Jinping, wuxuu dagaallamayaa Dagaal Qabow.

Xi wuxuu galayaa wada-xaajoodyada ganacsiga isagoo wata istaraatiijiyad ballaaran oo uu sanado soo diyaarinayay—taasoo, sida ay sheegeen la-taliyeyaal dhinaca siyaasadda ah oo jooga Beijing, ay dhiirigelisay fahamkiisa ku aaddan waxyaabihii Midowgii Soofiyeeti ka qaldamay Dagaalkii Qaboobaa ee hore.

Iyagoo si fiican uga warqaba sarraynta dhaqaale iyo milatari ee Maraykanku weli haysto, la-taliyeyaashu waxay sheegeen in Xi uu doonayo inuu iska ilaaliyo iska-hor-imaad toos ah, isagoo dhanka kale ilaashanaya mowqifka Shiinaha ee loollan dheer oo dhinac walba ah.

Xi wuxuu hiigsanayaa inuu gaaro waxa uu Mao Zedong ugu yeeri jiray “isu-dheellitirnaan istaraatiiji ah”—xaalad is-mari-waa oo waarta taasoo cadaadiska Maraykanku noqonayo mid la maareyn karo, Shiinuhuna uu helo waqti uu kula soo qabsado Maraykanka.

“Shiinaha, ‘isu-dheellitirnaanta istaraatiijiga ah’ waa natiijada ugu macquulsan uguna wanaagsan ee la filan karo mustaqbalka dhow,” ayuu yiri Minxin Pei, oo ah borofisar ka tirsan Kulliyadda Claremont McKenna iyo tafatiraha joornaalka rubuc-laha ah ee China Leadership Monitor. “Samirka istaraatiijiga ah, ilaalinta kheyraadka iyo dabacsanaanta xeeladaysan ayaa dhammaantood muhiim u noqon doona gaarista is-mari-waagan.”

Siyaabo qaar, Beijing waxay waddaa nooc ka mid ah dagaal-jabhadayn, oo uu kiciyay falanqayn uu Henry Kissinger ku sameeyay dabeecadda iska horimaadyada aan isku-dheellitirnayn: “Ciidanka rasmiga ahi wuu guuldarraystaa haddii uusan guulaysan. Jabhadduna way guulaysataa haddii aysan guuldarraysan.”

Mid ka mid ah tiirarka muhiimka ah ee casharrada uu Xi ka bartay burburkii Soofiyeetka waa dhinaca dhaqaalaha: Soofiyeetku waxay dhammaan sharadkoodii dhaqaale saareen warshadaha culus, iyagoo diiradda saaray tamarta iyo hubka. Taas beddelkeeda, Beijing waxay isku dayeysaa inay soo saarto wax walba, iyadoo adkeyneysa dhaqaalaha Shiinaha si uu uga badbaado xayiraadaha ganacsi iyo tiknoolajiyadeed ee Maraykanka, isla markaana ay weli ka faa’iidaysanayso hammuunta suuqyada adduunka ee badeecadaheeda.

Tiir kale waa kan juquraafi-siyaasadeedka (geopolitical), halkaas oo hadafku yahay in laga fogaado go’doon la mid ah kii Soofiyeetka. Tani waxay ku lug leedahay wiiqista isbahaysiga Maraykanka iyadoo la dhiirigelinayo waxa ay Beijing ugu yeerto “isbahaysi-kala-duwan,” halkaas oo dalalku ay xiriiro la yeeshaan quwado badan oo caalami ah halkii ay ka dooran lahaayeen hal dhinac oo kaliya.

Sidoo kale waxaa muhiim u ah istaraatiijiyadda in la sii wado kordhinta awoodda milatari ee Shiinaha laakiin iyada oo aan la gelin tartan hubayn oo qaali ah oo lala galo Maraykanka. Miisaaniyadda difaaca ee rasmiga ah ee dalka ayaa aheyd heer deggan oo ah qiyaastii 7.2% saddexdii sano ee la soo dhaafay. In kasta oo taasi ay ka badan tahay kobaca guud ee dhaqaalaha Shiinaha, haddana waxay ka yar tahay 1.5% wax-soo-saarka guud ee dalkiisa (gross domestic product, GDP).

Waxaana muhiimadda ugu weyn leh, tiirka ugu muhiimsan wuxuu ku lug leeyahay sii xoojinta awoodda Xisbiga Shuuciga (Communist Party) uu ku leeyahay dhammaan dhinacyada bulshada.

Xi wuxuu inta badan ka hadlaa dhicitaankii Soofiyeetka oo cashar u ah Shiinaha. “Maxay ahayd sababta uu Midowgii Soofiyeeti u burburay? Maxay ahayd sababta uu Xisbiga Shuuciga ee Midowgii Soofiyeeti u kala daatay?” ayuu Xi ku yiri khudbad ay albaabbadu u xiran yihiin oo uu u jeediyay saraakiil sare oo xisbiga ka tirsan bishii Jannaayo 2013, wax yar ka dib markii uu la wareegay hoggaanka xisbiga. “Sabab muhiim ah ayaa ah in fagaaraha fikradeed, uu tartanku ahaa mid aad u adag.” Taasoo loo fasiran karo: Xisbigu waa in uusan oggolaan in awooddiisa lala tartamo.

Marxalad kala-guur ah

Shiinuhu wuxuu leeyahay taariikh dheer oo ah barashada Soofiyeetka. Sannadkii 1953, sannadkii uu Xi dhashay, Mao wuxuu bilaabay olole lagu dhiirigelinayo qaabka Soofiyeetka ee nidaamyada siyaasadeed, dhaqaale, iyo milatari ee Shiinaha. Aabaha Xi, Xi Zhongxun, oo ahaa kacaan-yaqaan xisbiga ka tirsan oo la dagaallamay Mao, ayaa aaday Moscow dabayaaqadii 1950-meeyadii, xilli uu Shiinuhu ku dhowaad aanu lahayn wax warshado ah, si uu u soo booqdo goobaha warshadaha oo uu uga barto hawlahooda iyo tiknoolajiyaddooda.

Taasi waxay si weyn u qaabaysay yaraantiisii Xi, taasoo keentay inuu si qoto dheer ula dhacsanaado qiyamka, taariikhda iyo dhaqanka Soofiyeetka. “Jacaylkiisa Ruushka,” sida ay qaar ka mid ah dadka xog-ogaalka u ah xisbiga ugu yeeraan, wuxuu ahaa mid aad u qoto dheer oo ku dhawaad soddon sano oo kala-goynaan Soofiyeet-Shiine ah aysan ruxin.

Laakiin markii Xi uu ahaa xiddig siyaasadeed oo soo baxaya dabayaaqadii 2000-meeyadii, Midowgii Soofiyeeti wuu burburay, aragtidiisuna way is beddeshay. Isagoo madax ka ah Dugsiga Dhexe ee Xisbiga (Central Party School), oo ah akadeemiyad sare oo xisbiga ah, wuxuu u adeegsaday burburkii Soofiyeetka digniin ahaan, isagoo iftiimiyay suuska fikradeed iyo luminta awoodda siyaasadeed inay yihiin sababaha ugu waaweyn ee burburka.

Ka dib markii uu xukunka la wareegay 2012, Xi wuxuu amray in la sameeyo filim dokumentari ah oo ku saabsan dhammaadkii Midowgii Soofiyeeti kaasoo Mikhail Gorbachev, hoggaamiyihii ugu dambeeyay ee Soofiyeetka, ku tilmaamay qof shar-wade ah oo ka tagay xisbiga.

Laakiin xitaa markaas, daraasadda Beijing ee Dagaalkii Qaboobaa waxay diiradda saartay sida uu Shiinuhu uga fogaan karo masiir la mid ah; Xi weli uma arkin Shiinaha inuu yahay tartan-gale iska-hor-imaad quwado waaweyn oo Maraykanka lala galo.

Marxaladda isbeddelka waxay ahayd dagaalkii ganacsiga ee Trump uu la galay Shiinaha muddadii xilkiisa ee 2018 iyo 2019. Hal-ku-dheggiisii “Maraykanka Mar Kale Weynee” (Make America Great Again) wuxuu Xi tusay go’aanka Maraykanka ee ah inuu ilaashado sarrayntiisa. Inta badan iyagoo aan u sii diyaar garoobin xeeladaha cadaadiska ee Trump, hoggaanka Xi wuxuu bilaabay dib-u-qiimeyn ku saabsan Dagaalkii Qabooba, sida ay sheegeen la-taliyeyaasha Shiinaha. Diiradda cusub: sida loo dagaallamo oo ugu dambeyntii looga guuleysto Dagaal Qabow oo lala galo Maraykanka.

Sannadkii 2020, markii cudurka faafa ee Covid-19 uu ku dhowaaday inuu gebi ahaanba gooyo xiriirka labada dal, Xi wuxuu soo bandhigay qaybtii ugu horreysay ee weyn ee istaraatiijiyaddiisa cusub ee Dagaalka Qabow: Isagoo adeegsanaya magac aan caddayn oo ah “wareeg-labaadle ah” (dual circulation)—in gudaha lagu soo saaro waxa Shiinuhu u baahan yahay, badeecadana dibadda loo diro—wuxuu bilaabay dadaal ballaaran oo lagu doonayo in si wanaagsan Shiinaha looga ilaaliyo saameynta dibadda, gaar ahaan tan Maraykanka.

Markii Madaxweynihii hore Joe Biden uu sii waday siyaasadihii adkaa ee Trump ee ka dhanka ahaa Shiinaha, go’aanka Xi ee ah inuu la dagaallamo loollan dheer oo lala galo Maraykanka ayaa noqday mid aad u degdeg ah.

Taasi waa markii Beijing ay si xooggan u caddeysay inay doonayso in loola dhaqmo sidii mid la siman Maraykanka, iyo sidoo kale, si muhiim ah, markii ay si dheeraad ah isugu soo dhoweysay Ruushka. Horraantii 2022, wax yar ka hor duullaankii Ruushka ee Ukraine, Beijing iyo Moscow waxay ku dhawaaqeen in saaxiibtinimadoodu aysan lahayn “wax xad ah.”

Hase yeeshee, Xi wuxuu ka taxaddaray inuusan koobiyeyn buugga xeeladaha ee Soofiyeetka ee ahaa kobcinta isbahaysi bari oo inta badan go’doonsan. In kasta oo uu gartay in Shiinuhu laga yaabo inuu u baahdo inuu ka goosto Maraykanka, wuxuu hubinayay in dalku uusan ka xirnayn adduunka intiisa kale, isagoo ku dhex hayay dhaqaalaha adduunka, gaar ahaan dalalka dakhligoodu hooseeyo.

Si looga hortago eedeymaha ah in Shiinuhu uu saameyn ku iibsanayay isagoo dalal ay ka mid yihiin Sri Lanka iyo Zambia ku dabinayo deyn-bixin dabin ah (predatory lending), Xi iyo kooxdiisu waxay dib-u-habeyn ku sameeyeen barnaamijka kaabeyaasha dhaqaalaha ee triliyan-dollar-ka ah ee ‘Belt and Road’ si deyn-bixintiisa looga dhigo mid waarta oo ay awoodi karaan kuwa helaya maalgelinta Shiinaha.

“Siyaasadaha dhaqaale iyo diblomaasiyadeed ee Shiinaha dhammaantood waxay u jiheysan yihiin inay isu diyaariyaan halgan muddo dheer ah oo ka dhan ah Maraykanka,” ayuu yiri Evan Medeiros, oo ahaa sarkaal sare oo amniga qaranka ka tirsanaa maamulkii Obama, haddana ah bare ka tirsan Jaamacadda Georgetown.

Waqti iibsasho

Talada Xi ee uu siiyo hay’adaha xisbiga, sida ay sheegeen la-taliyeyaasha Shiinaha, waa mid samir ku dhisan, isagoo ku qanacsan in isu-dheellitirka awoodda adduunka uu si lama huraan ah ugu janjeeri doono dhanka Shiinaha.

Daganaanshahan joogtada ah ayaa loogu talagalay in lagu muujiyo farqiga u dhexeeya waxa Xi u arko fowdada Maraykanka iyo mowqifka weligii is-beddelaya ee maamulka Trump ee ku wajahan Shiinaha. Dhowr bilood gudahood, Aqalka Cad wuxuu ka soo gudbay adeegsiga cadaadiska canshuuraha ugu sarreeya ee Shiinaha iyo isku dayga in la go’doomiyo dhaqaalaha labaad ee adduunka ugu weyn, isagoo hadda raadinaya heshiis ballaaran oo tanaasul labada dhinac ah.

Waa jawi ay Beijing uga faa’iidaysato danteeda, iyadoo dejinaysa shuruudaha tartanka mustaqbalka.

Maamulka Trump wuxuu burburiyay hay’adda kaalmada dibadda ee Maraykanka, taasoo Beijing siisay fursad ay isugu daydo inay ka faa’iidaysato xilli ay jirto tartan juquraafi-siyaasadeed oo xooggan. Iyadoo Maraykanku uu beegsaday fiisooyinka ardayda Shiinaha uuna dhimayo hawlgallada sida Voice of America, dawladda Shiinuhu waxay bixinaysaa safarro dhammaan kharashkoodu baxsan yahay oo loogu talagalay saameeyayaasha baraha bulshada ee Maraykanka kuwaasoo ay rajeynayaan inay ka caawin doonaan kor u qaadista “Shiinaha casriga ah.”

Hal-abuuraha Mareykanka ee IShowSpeed, oo leh in ka badan 120 milyan oo taageerayaal baraha bulshada ah, ayaa Beijing u horseeday guul dhinaca saamaynta-jilicsan ah (soft-power) markii uu Shiinaha booqday 10 maalmood bishii Abriil. Fiidiyowyadiisa si weyn loo daawaday, oo muujinayay isagoo la yaabban tareennada xawaaraha dheereeya ee dalka iyo baabuurta korontada ku shaqeysa ee meel walba laga helo, ayaa noqday mid caan ka ah adduunka.

Marka lagu daro wada-xaajoodyada ganacsiga, Beijing waxay dooneysaa inay soo celiso nooca “wada-hadallada” soo noqnoqda ee Washington u aragto inay yihiin waqti lumis. Xi, waa xeelad waqti lagu iibsado.

“Waxay si buuxda u damacsan yihiin inay si adag u ciyaaraan oo ay jiid-jiidaan arrinta,” ayuu yiri Pei oo ka tirsan Kulliyadda Claremont McKenna.

In Shiinuhu ku guuleysan karo istaraatiijiyaddan ayaa ah mid aan la hubin.

Siyaasadaha Xi ee lagu sii ambaqaadayo loollanka quwadaha waaweyn ee Shiinaha waxay halis ugu jiraan inay ka sii daraan dhibaatooyinkiisa dhaqaale. Nidaamka amarka-iyo-kontoroolka ee xisbiga ayaa ceejinaya hawlaha waaxda gaarka loo leeyahay, siyaasadda loogu talagalay in wax walba la soo saaro, gaar ahaan, waxay horseedaysaa wareeg sii qoto dheeraanaya oo sicir-hoos-u-dhac ah (deflation).

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Xi, waxaas oo dhan waxay u noqon karaan saameyn-dhinacyo la iska dulqaadan karo marka la eego hadafka muddada-dheer ee ah in Maraykanka la daaliyo.

“Hadafka Xi waa inuu gaaro ka-sarrayn tiknoolajiyadeed oo uu ka ciyaaro door xitaa saameyn badan ku leh loollankan muddada dheer ah,” ayuu yiri Robert Hormats, oo ahaa la-taliyaha sare ee dhaqaalaha ee Kissinger 1970-meeyadii.