MOGADISHU, Somalia — The United States has issued a strongly worded statement warning Somalia’s federal leadership against pushing through unilateral changes to the country’s federal and electoral systems without broad-based consultation, signaling deep concern over the direction of recent reforms.
The statement, released by the U.S. Bureau of African Affairs, followed the National Consultative Council’s (NCC) latest round of meetings in Mogadishu, which concluded Wednesday.
While the federal government hailed the talks as a step forward in strengthening national security and advancing electoral preparations, the absence of Puntland and Jubaland — two key federal member states — exposed widening cracks in Somalia’s fragile political architecture.
“All relevant stakeholders should have a say in changes to Somalia’s federal and election systems,” the Bureau posted on X, formerly Twitter. “Decisions taken without broad-based support will lack legitimacy and distract from pressing security challenges.”
The U.S. rarely makes such statements in public, a point emphasized by Abdirahman Aynte, Somalia’s former Planning Minister and a respected political analyst. He interpreted the U.S. move as a significant shift in diplomatic posture.
“In diplomatic terms, advice is given discreetly, and criticism is thrown in the public domain as a coercive tactic,” Aynte wrote. “For the U.S. to shame the intransigence of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) on elections and unilateral constitutional changes, it means that Washington has exhausted all diplomatic options to counsel an increasingly rudderless ally.”
Aynte drew parallels between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, both faced mounting domestic and international pressure over election delays and constitutional overreach. “Like his predecessor, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will now be forced to negotiate an electoral process that he can neither win nor rig,” Aynte said.
He added that the current crisis illustrates a “vicious cycle” embedded in Somalia’s elite political culture, calling for a generational reset. “This vicious cycle epitomizes a deeply flawed political culture espoused by the upper echelon of the political elite. Time has come for a bold and transformative political movement aimed at salvaging our beloved nation,” he concluded.
Fractures despite reform pledges
The U.S. statement followed the NCC summit held at Villa Somalia under President Mohamud’s leadership. Attendees included Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, Deputy Prime Minister Salah Ahmed Jama, and the presidents of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West State, and SSC-Khaatumo, alongside representatives from the Banadir region.
The Council issued a final communiqué outlining commitments to strengthen national security coordination, support military operations against Al-Shabaab, and accelerate voter registration efforts, beginning in Mogadishu and extending to other federal member states.
However, the meeting’s tone was dampened by Puntland’s and Jubaland’s conspicuous absence. Both regional states have openly criticized the federal government’s recent push to amend Somalia’s provisional constitution and overhaul the electoral system without their consent. Puntland, in particular, has suspended cooperation with the federal government, while Jubaland has accused Villa Somalia of attempting to undermine its autonomy.
Jubaland Information Minister Abdifatah Mohamed Mukhtaar rejected the NCC’s final statement, saying it “adds nothing new and does not change the situation in Jubaland.” He accused the federal leadership of ignoring core political disputes and instead advancing a top-down agenda.
In response to escalating tensions in Jubaland, the NCC directed the Ministry of Interior to draft a legal framework to resolve political disputes within the region. But Jubaland officials say the federal government’s involvement is part of the problem, not the solution.
Meanwhile, one of the more symbolic announcements from the NCC was the formal recognition of SSC-Khaatumo as Somalia’s newest federal member state — a move likely to further complicate the federal map amid ongoing territorial and political legitimacy disputes.
The NCC also reaffirmed its commitment to upholding Somalia’s provisional constitution and emphasized the need for inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders — a point seemingly undermined by the exclusion of two major federal states from the talks.
International pressure builds
The United States, a key security and development partner to Somalia, has grown increasingly vocal about the need for inclusivity and legitimacy in the country’s political process.
Washington has invested heavily in Somalia’s stabilization efforts, and fears that unilaterally imposed reforms could reignite political conflict and undermine the fragile gains made over the past decade.
The latest developments suggest that Somalia is once again approaching a political crossroads. With an electoral process on the horizon and deep mistrust between the federal government and several regional administrations, observers warn that failure to reach a genuine national consensus could risk a return to the institutional paralysis that plagued previous transitions.
As Aynte noted, the problem may lie less in the technical details of reform and more in the entrenched political habits of the ruling elite. “The time has come,” he said, “for a bold and transformative political movement aimed at salvaging our beloved nation.”
Whether President Mohamud will heed these warnings and initiate an inclusive political dialogue remains to be seen. But the message from Washington is clear: legitimacy in Somalia cannot be decreed from the top — it must be built from the ground up.
