Exclusive Summary
The history of Ethiopia’s monarchy is a multifaceted fabric intertwined with cultural, political, and geographical complexities. An essential character in this story is Emperor Menelik II, whose rule from 1889 to 1913 significantly influenced the area. Menelik’s ambitions for Somalia were based on historical factors, geographical factors, and a desire to increase Ethiopia’s dominance. Menelik’s ambition of a larger Ethiopian kingdom and his awareness of historical claims inspired the traditional aspirations towards Somalia. Ethiopia has historical affiliations with some regions of Somalia, and Menelik aimed to reaffirm these linkages. Nevertheless, this vision clashed with the growing Somali nationalist spirit and opposition to foreign control.
Menelik’s aspirations came to fruition with the Battle of Adwa in 1896, when Ethiopian soldiers achieved a resounding victory against the Italian army. This triumph firmly established Ethiopia as the only African country to oppose European colonisation, bolstering Menelik’s reputation successfully. Having established a stronger and more unified kingdom, Menelik focused on Somalia, seeing it as a logical expansion of Ethiopian authority. Ethiopia’s involvement with Somalia centred on the Ogaden area. The Ogaden, rich in resources and strategically positioned, was a subject of dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia. Menelik’s attempts to establish authority over the area encountered opposition from Somali groups and sparked enduring hostilities that lasted for many decades.
Menelik’s traditional ambitions were also motivated by a want to establish Ethiopia as a dominant force in the Horn of Africa. Menelik aimed to establish Ethiopia as a prominent power among the changing alliances and rivalries of the geopolitical scene. Nevertheless, this aspiration encountered obstacles, primarily from European colonial powers and the burgeoning Somali nationalism movement. Ethiopia and Somalia have a long border and a strong historical connection. Nevertheless, these connections have often been characterised by alternating phases of collaboration and strain. The Ogaden region, a disputed territory claimed by both nations, is a significant historical issue that has influenced their relationship. The ongoing territorial issue has consistently caused friction, leading to a problematic relationship between the two states.
From a geopolitical standpoint, the area has been a focal point for international power conflicts as different foreign entities strive to exert influence. During the Cold War, Ethiopia allied with the Soviet Union, while Somalia received backing from the United States. The external factors exacerbated the complex bilateral ties between Ethiopia and Somalia. One crucial element of Ethiopia’s historic ambitions towards Somalia is the pursuit of strategic interests. Landlocked Ethiopia has long been ambitious to gain control over strategic ports in the area, including those in Somalia. Unrestricted access to maritime routes is essential for fostering economic growth, facilitating commerce, and ensuring strategic military capabilities. Ethiopia’s past endeavours to influence Somalia are seen in its engagement in the nation’s domestic affairs, such as assisting various sides during the Somali Civil War.
The 1991 ousting of the Siad Barre dictatorship in Somalia and the following disintegration of central authority resulted in a void of power and a period of instability. Ethiopia, apprehensive about the possible repercussions on its stability, engaged in military intervention in Somalia. The action, motivated by security concerns, also demonstrated Ethiopia’s long-standing ambitions to influence the political situation of its neighbouring country. The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia has been changing in recent years, driven by regional dynamics, internal political developments, and economic concerns. Ethiopia’s predicaments, including ethnic strife and governmental shifts, have also influenced its stance towards Somalia.
In conclusion, Menelik II’s ambitions towards Somalia were complex, stemming from historical assertions, geopolitical factors, and a desire for an expanded Ethiopian kingdom. The complicated interaction of regional powers and the lasting influence of Menelik’s rule continue to define the historical narrative of the Horn of Africa, contributing to the complex dynamics of this time. Ethiopia’s enduring ambitions towards Somalia are firmly grounded in historical, cultural, geopolitical, and strategic considerations. The intricate interaction between the Ogaden conflict, cultural connections, foreign influences, and strategic goals has been a significant contributing factor. Comprehending the historical backdrop is essential for a detailed examination of the current interactions between these two countries in the Horn of Africa.
The root causes for the MoU between Abiy and Bihi
Abiy Ahmed’s term as Prime Minister of Ethiopia has been characterised by several adverse occurrences that have elicited apprehension both inside and globally. One key concern has been the rising ethnic tensions and internal national disputes. The administration headed by Ahmed has had difficulties in adequately dealing with and reducing these conflicts, resulting in extensive displacement, loss of life, and a humanitarian catastrophe. The postponement of the 2020 general elections in response to the COVID-19 outbreak has sparked more controversy. Detractors contend that this action has eroded the democratic process and prompted inquiries over the government’s commitment to a transparent and all-encompassing political system. Moreover, the delay has exacerbated the political ambiguity and heightened national tensions.
Abiy Ahmed’s attitude to the Tigray area has been very controversial. The military operation in Tigray, initiated in November 2020, has been tainted by accounts of human rights violations, including widespread deaths, sexual assault, and forced relocation. The war has led to a profound humanitarian catastrophe, with millions requiring aid, and has damaged Ethiopia’s ties with neighbouring nations and the global community. The government’s assault on political opposition and media freedom has also been a cause of worry. Arrests of journalists and opposition individuals have occurred, resulting in a suppression of freedom of expression and a deterioration of democratic principles. Critics contend that these moves demonstrate an emerging tendency towards authoritarianism within the administration.
Abiy Ahmed’s handling of ethnic tensions and regional problems has drawn significant criticism. The Amhara wars have shown the vulnerability of Ethiopia’s ethnic diversity, and his strategy has been condemned for intensifying rather than mitigating these tensions. The government’s inability to adequately address deep-rooted issues and foster inclusive discussion has played a role in the intensification of violence in the Amhara area.
Under Abiy Ahmed’s administration, Ethiopia has had economic difficulties. The nation has struggled with inflation, a depreciating currency, and an increasing debt load. The economic recession has had adverse consequences for the lives of several Ethiopians, intensifying pre-existing social and economic disparities. In general, Abiy Ahmed’s term has been characterised by a sequence of unfavourable occurrences, such as the inability to resolve internal conflicts adequately, the delay of elections, the contentious military intervention in Tigray, limitations on political opposition and media autonomy, and economic difficulties. These problems have harmed Ethiopia’s internal stability and put pressure on its interactions with the global community.
Muse Bihi Abdi became the President of Somaliland in December 2017. Although he has made some improvements, there have been significant complaints about his leadership. An important issue arises from the restrictions on political liberties and human rights in Somaliland. Bihi’s government has faced criticism for becoming more intolerant of alternative opinions and suppressing political opposition and independent media. The administration’s handling of the border issue with Puntland in the Sool and Sanaag areas has also faced criticism. Bihi’s administration has been criticised for adopting an aggressive approach, worsening tensions and impeding diplomatic efforts. This strategy has sparked worries about the possibility of heightened instability in the area.
An important issue is the purportedly forceful handling of the conflict, which worsens tensions instead of fostering healing. The government’s use of military force in certain places has faced criticism for exacerbating the conflict and engendering more instability. Moreover, some concerns have been made over the humanitarian consequences of the fighting, including claims of forced relocation and civilian fatalities. The absence of a comprehensive approach to tackle the humanitarian issue has garnered criticism, as it indicates a failure to prioritise the welfare of the impacted communities in Sool and Sanaag.
Throughout Bihi’s term, there have been ongoing economic difficulties, with opponents arguing that the administration has not adequately tackled problems such as unemployment and poverty. There is a contention that economic policies have shown a preference towards specific groups, leading to an increasing disparity in income and worsening social inequities. Furthermore, there are worries about the insufficient advancement in the democratisation process. Bihi’s government has been under criticism due to the prolonged postponement of parliamentary and municipal elections, which has significant ramifications for the democratic progress of Somaliland.
During Bihi’s leadership, there was disagreement about how elections were handled. Delays and conflicts in voting procedures have eroded the democratic foundations that Somaliland aims to preserve. The prolonged election problems have intensified political turmoil and undermined public trust in the government’s commitment to honest and equitable administration. Indeed, Muse Bihi Abdi’s administration has seen many favourable advancements, including implementing infrastructural initiatives and endeavours to entice international investments. However, significant critiques have been raised about political liberties, economic strategies, and diplomatic methods. It is crucial to tackle these challenges to promote a more inclusive and sustainable future for Somaliland.
Ethiopia envies Somalia’s tangible progress
Ethiopia’s recognition of Somalia’s noticeable advancements throughout 2023-24 stimulates a multifaceted combination of adoration, jealousy, and strategic deliberations. Somalia has made significant progress in several areas, including combating the threat of Al-Shabaab, obtaining a weapons embargo, receiving debt forgiveness, gaining military superiority, and joining the East Africa Community. These achievements demonstrate a remarkable transformation that Ethiopia may view critically.
Somalia’s notable triumph in the battle against Al-Shabaab is a remarkable accomplishment. Ethiopia, which is dealing with its security difficulties, may consider the tactics used by Somalia to combat this radical organisation. Somalia’s successful counter-terrorism measures may lead Ethiopia to reassess its strategies and consider the possibility of collaborating or sharing best practices.
Somalia’s demonstration of diplomatic competence is seen in the implementation and subsequent removal of a weapons embargo imposed on the country. As a dominant force in the area, Ethiopia may study the diplomatic skills used by Somalia to navigate international affairs and accomplish its goals. This can prompt deep self-reflection within Ethiopia’s foreign policy circles, prompting a thorough evaluation of diplomatic initiatives to strengthen regional influence.
Somalia has achieved significant advancements in debt forgiveness, alleviating the economic strain on the country. Now facing its economic difficulties, Ethiopia may see Somalia’s achievement in debt reduction as a valuable example to contemplate. An analysis of Somalia’s economic diplomacy may initiate conversations with Ethiopia about restructuring and alleviating debt to promote economic growth.
Somalia’s military superiority may lead Ethiopia to examine its military capabilities and strategy closely. Given the neighbouring nations’ efforts to protect their borders and ensure peace, Ethiopia may reconsider its defence capabilities and provide resources to upgrade its armed forces in response to evaluating Somalia’s military progress.
Somalia’s inclusion in the East Africa Community indicates a strategic step towards further regional integration. Given Ethiopia’s significant role in the Horn of Africa, it is essential for the country to carefully consider the potential consequences of this integration on its geopolitical position. The findings may prompt discussions on Ethiopia’s involvement in regional organisations and the possible advantages of enhanced cooperation with neighbouring countries.
Ultimately, Ethiopia’s thorough evaluation of Somalia’s measurable advancements in 2023-24 involves various factors, including security tactics, diplomatic expertise, economic strength, military capacities, and regional cooperation. Envy may play a role, but it is probably accompanied by a strategic evaluation to adapt and enhance Ethiopia’s tactics in these crucial areas.
MOHAMED H. SALAD is a researcher and Analyst of International Security & Peace Conflict Studies Specialist in the Horn of Africa
hirsiboy@gmail.com
Twitter: @Mhirsisalad
