MOGADISHU, Somalia – Deepening clan-based power struggles threaten to fracture the leadership of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab jihadist group, potentially undermining its operational cohesion as it explores a strategic shift towards governance, security sources familiar with the group’s internal dynamics told Caasimada Online.
The core of the conflict pits established leaders from the Dir clan, including current emir Ahmed Diriye, against prominent figures from the Hawiye clan who have long served as the group’s public face.
This internal friction surfaces as the Al-Qaeda-linked group reportedly considers evolving its tactics, drawing inspiration from the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and the political maneuvering of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria.
Deepening clan divides
Historically, Al-Shabaab’s top leadership has often hailed from the Dir clan, particularly elements originating from the northern region of Somaliland. Ahmed Diriye, also known as Abu Ubaidah, who succeeded Ahmed Godane (alias Abu Zubeyr) after his death in a 2014 US airstrike, continues this trend. Godane himself was from Somaliland.
However, the group’s most visible figures have frequently been Hawiye clan members, including long-time spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage (Ali Dheere), intelligence chief Mahad Karate, and senior commander Yusuf Haji Nurow (Kabakudukade). This division – with Dir leadership operating more covertly while Hawiye figures handle public messaging and operations – now appears to be a significant fault line.
The complex clan system in Somalia remains a powerful force in social and political life, influencing alliances and conflicts. While Al-Shabaab publicly espouses a pan-Islamic ideology rejecting the claim, these internal dynamics suggest clan affiliations remain deeply entrenched.
Sources indicate that Al-Shabaab’s leadership, encouraged by events in Afghanistan and Syria, has begun exploring pathways beyond pure insurgency toward establishing a more formal administrative or governing structure. HTS, previously Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, has notably consolidated control over Idlib province, operating a quasi-government.
This potential strategic pivot, however, has reportedly inflamed rather than unified the group, exposing ideological and clan-based fissures. The ambition to govern necessitates a unified front and transparent leadership, qualities now seemingly undermined by internal rivalry.
Whispers of potential peace negotiations, possibly facilitated by international actors including Norway, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States, add another layer of complexity. While the status and seriousness of any such talks remain unconfirmed, the mere possibility raises critical questions about representation.
The publicly prominent Hawiye faction, led by figures like Ali Dheere and Mahad Karate, would appear logically positioned to lead any potential negotiations. This prospect alarms the less visible Dir leadership under Diriye, who reportedly fear being sidelined in crucial future decisions.
“Al-Shabaab has been fighting for over 15 years,” noted Fatima Ahmed, an independent analyst focusing on Horn of Africa security. “Any shift towards talks or governance fundamentally challenges its internal power balance, especially given the historical clan dynamics.”
Leadership promotes new faces
Feeling his authority potentially weakened by his lower public profile, Diriye has allegedly initiated moves to elevate individuals from his own Dir clan base, particularly those from Somaliland, into more prominent roles.
Figures such as Abwaan Nageeye Ali Khalif, Abdiwahid Gama’did, and Sheikh Adan Sunne, described as a hardline cleric, have reportedly become increasingly visible in Al-Shabaab’s media output, appearing in videos, at training camps, and delivering sermons. This is interpreted as an effort to create new public faces loyal to Diriye and representing the Dir leadership faction.
Somaliland, a self-declared republic seeking independence from Somalia since 1991, is not internationally recognized but maintains its own government and security forces. The prominence of figures from this region within Al-Shabaab’s core leadership highlights the complex interplay between the group’s ideology and Somalia’s fragmented political landscape.
Promoting these new figures has reportedly alarmed the established Hawiye leaders, who fear gradually eroding their influence, potentially mirroring past internal purges. They are reminded of the 2013 killings of co-founders Ibrahim al-Afghani and Ma’allin Burhaan, reportedly on Godane’s orders, which also prompted the high-profile defection of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a significant figure in Somali Islamism, to the government.
Interpreting Nageeye, Gama’did, and Sunne’s elevation as a strategic move to marginalize them, the Hawiye leaders—Ali Dheere, Mahad Karate, and Kabakudukade—are said to be implementing a two-pronged counter-strategy.
Firstly, they are reportedly intensifying recruitment efforts within their own Hawiye sub-clans to build loyalist fighting units. Secondly, they are working to reassert their indispensability within Al-Shabaab’s operational structure and as potential interlocutors for external actors, including the Somali government and the international community.
A break with recruitment tradition
This reported clan-based recruitment drive significantly departs Al-Shabaab’s traditional strategy. The group historically avoided concentrating recruitment within the large, politically powerful clans (like Hawiye, Dir, and Darod) from which its leadership often emerged.
Instead, it frequently drew rank-and-file fighters from numerous but often politically marginalized clans, such as the Jareerweyne and Rahanweyn communities. This was seen as a tactic to prevent powerful clan militias from forming within Al-Shabaab and potentially challenging the leadership. The shift towards Hawiye sub-clan recruitment suggests a calculated risk by factional leaders prioritizing internal loyalty over established group doctrine.
The outcome of this escalating internal rivalry remains uncertain. However, it signals significant instability within one of Africa’s most persistent and dangerous jihadist organizations, potentially impacting its future operations and strategic direction across Somalia and the wider region.
