WASHINGTON – Fears are mounting that Al-Shabaab, widely considered Africa’s most dangerous terrorist group, is strengthening its capabilities via foreign backing – a development that could heighten risks to vital maritime trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, a new report warns.

The Somalia-based extremist group is reportedly forging deeper ties with Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, commonly known as the Houthis. This nascent partnership could equip Al-Shabaab to target commercial shipping with drones or potentially missiles, according to a new assessment from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The CSIS report, released Friday, characterizes Al-Shabaab as operating like a “quasi-state” and posing a direct threat to U.S. interests, forecasting an expansion of the group’s capabilities by 2025.

The analysis cites a senior advisor to the anti-Houthi coalition alleging that the Houthis intend to supply Al-Shabaab with advanced weaponry specifically for targeting vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden.

Benefits of state sponsorship

“The Houthis could provide, or may have already provided, Al-Shabaab the benefits of state sponsorship,” the report asserts, highlighting potential military training and the transfer of drone technology.

For more than a year, U.S. naval forces have actively countered attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis against commercial vessels in the region.

The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea began after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and the ensuing war in Gaza. While the group claims its targets are linked to Israel or its allies (notably the U.S.), numerous targeted vessels have lacked any clear connection to the conflict.

Al-Shabaab’s entry into maritime attacks would dramatically complicate international efforts to secure vital shipping lanes through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.

Further evidence of deepening ties between Al-Shabaab and the Houthis could emerge as early as Thursday, when AFRICOM Commander General Michael Langley is scheduled to testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington.

Countering Al-Shabaab has long been a central mission for AFRICOM and a key U.S. military priority in Africa. The Al-Qaeda affiliate has fought a bloody insurgency for over 20 years aiming to overthrow the Somali government and impose its rule. Despite facing Somali government offensives, the group has proven remarkably resilient.

While AFRICOM has conducted numerous airstrikes and deployed special forces to advise and assist Somali partners, the CSIS report contends these efforts have failed to significantly degrade Al-Shabaab’s overall strength. The group is estimated to command 7,000 to 12,000 fighters and maintains control over significant swathes of southern Somalia.

Al-Shabaab’s strong revenue 

Al-Shabaab generates an estimated $100 million-plus annually through diverse means, including extensive taxation networks. Furthermore, the report notes, the group funnels funds to other Al-Qaeda affiliates, demonstrating considerable financial clout.

The CSIS analysis cautions, however, that simply intensifying U.S. airstrikes could backfire, citing the group’s deadly 2020 attack on a military base in Kenya—which killed a U.S. soldier and two American contractors—during a previous peak in U.S. drone operations.

“Conflict is likely to escalate should President Trump resume his strategy of heavy strikes,” the report explicitly warns.

While the report refrains from offering specific policy prescriptions for tackling Somalia’s security crisis or weakening Al-Shabaab, it underscores the necessity of a comprehensive strategy integrating military, diplomatic, and economic aid for Somalia’s vulnerable government. Ultimately, the analysis concludes, Al-Shabaab “will remain a long-term threat.”