MOGADISHU, Somalia (AFP) – As Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud enters the final year of his second term, a once-hidden political rift with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has exploded into open confrontation, marking a dramatic reversal in relations between the two governments.

Once one of Villa Somalia’s closest allies, the UAE is now leading a visible diplomatic and political campaign against Mohamud’s administration, signaling a broader geopolitical shift and intensifying internal rivalries in Somalia.

Gordan camp attack: The flashpoint

Tensions spilled into public view following a deadly February 2024 attack on Mogadishu’s General Gordan military camp, which claimed the lives of four senior Emirati officers—Colonel Mohamed Al Mansoori, Mohamed Al Shamsi, Khalifa Al Balushi, and Suleiman Al Shehhi.

While the UAE described the incident as an “accident,” its diplomatic fallout was profound. Abu Dhabi promptly halted its military and financial support to Somali forces, severely impacting counterterrorism operations in HirShabelle and Galmudug.

The rupture came despite a defense cooperation agreement signed in January 2023 and a condolence visit by President Mohamud to Abu Dhabi. That visit failed to de-escalate the tensions, with the UAE conditioning renewed support on sweeping political changes in Mogadishu.

Reliable sources say the UAE explicitly demanded the dismissal of several Somali officials it viewed as politically or ideologically misaligned with its interests. These included:

• Mahad Mohamed Salad, former head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA).
• Yusuf Hussein Jimale, Governor of the Banadir region.
• Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre.
• Education Minister Farah Sheikh Abdulkadir

President Mohamud removed Salad and Jimale but rejected broader demands. In response, the UAE maintained its suspension of aid, insisting all conditions be fully met.

Villa Somalia pushed back against what it sees as unacceptable foreign interference. Presidential aides say Mohamud believes the UAE must first end its support for opposition-aligned regional leaders—namely Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Deni—whom the federal government views as proxies for Emirati influence.

UAE’s covert political campaign

Following Somalia’s rejection of its demands, the UAE reportedly changed tactics. Confidential sources say Abu Dhabi has begun covertly financing opposition activities in Mogadishu, aiming to apply pressure on the central government and influence the upcoming electoral process.

Analysts believe the UAE’s strategy is driven by two objectives:

1- To force Villa Somalia into political recognition of its allied regional leaders.

2- To build a potent political—and potentially armed—opposition capable of challenging the federal government.

In response, President Mohamud’s administration is mobilizing politically and militarily. Measures include:

• Restructuring the military leadership by replacing long-serving officers.
• Reappointing Mahad Salad to head NISA with a focus on countering foreign interference.
• Deepening alliances with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states aligned with Sudan’s transitional government, sending a clear signal that Somalia has alternative Gulf allies.

During a recent event marking the third anniversary of Mohamud’s presidency, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre subtly referenced the situation, stating, “Old political tactics are resurfacing.”

Sources say the UAE has initiated high-level talks with Somali opposition figures, including politicians from Puntland and Jubaland, in efforts to forge a new anti-government alliance. Major political gatherings are reportedly planned in Mogadishu in the coming weeks.

Federal officials warn that this is no longer mere diplomatic pressure, but direct interference aimed at destabilizing Somalia’s leadership ahead of national elections.

From quiet rift to open confrontation

What began as a discreet political dispute has now transformed into an open diplomatic clash, with both sides showing no willingness to compromise. Though diplomatic ties have not been officially severed, the rhetoric and actions from both capitals point to a widening and increasingly hostile divide.

Villa Somalia views the UAE’s posture as a direct threat to national sovereignty. In contrast, Abu Dhabi appears to view Mogadishu’s current trajectory as diverging from its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.

Analysts warn that the situation could soon reach a point of no return. In Somalia’s complex political landscape—shaped by clan dynamics, external alliances, and shifting loyalties—the next steps taken by either side could decisively shape the country’s political future.

President Mohamud now faces a defining choice: wait for the crisis to arrive at Villa Somalia’s doorstep or take the initiative to confront it head-on.