POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FUTURE OF JUBBALAND AND STABILIZING THROUGH COOPERATION FROM ALL SECTORS WITH THE GOAL OF DEFEATING AL-SHABAAB.
The international community role In Somalia is to stabilize Somalia, to safeguard the democratic process of elections allowing Ahmed Madobe to run and be elected again will send many negative messages to the people of the world that fight for Liberal democracy. Ahmed Madobe has been leading in Kismayo since 2007. For the last 12 years, Ahmed Madobe has been under control in Kismayo wearing different faces. First with Al-Shabaab, Hizbul-Islam and as Jubaland state. Ahmed Madobe has been president since 2013 and doesn’t believe in the democratic process of elections. He is one of the founders of Al-Shabaab ties to Iran, the cartels and al-Shabaab groups in Somalia. Ahmed’s net-worth is believed to be $70 million (invests in real states in Nairobi, Dubai, and Qatar. Al-Shabaab remains the most immediate threat to the peace, security, and stability of Somalia. Despite ongoing efforts by international forces to eliminate Al-Shabaab’s leadership, in particular through the use of airstrikes, the group’s ability to carry out complex asymmetric attacks in Somalia remains unstopped due to the help they got from Ahmed Madobe’s administration in Kismayo. It’s widely believed that Al-Shabaab uses the port of Kismayo to import their needs. Its very shame for the International partners to work with this criminal that have close ties with Al-Shabaab, Iran, and cartels that deals with gray arms, drugs, and charcoal. Evidence shows that Ahmed Madobe closely works with the above organizations.
According to Monitoring groups current report Political and security sector challenges continued to present a significant threat to stability in Jubaland administration.
Letter dated 7 November 2018 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 751 (1992) and 1907 (2009) concerning Somalia and Eritrea addressed to the President of the Security Council.
- An estimated 3.6 million bags of charcoal were produced during 2017, and 8 million acacia trees were cut down to produce 16 million bags of charcoal during 2011–2017; during this seven-year period, a tree was cut down to produce charcoal at a rate of one every 30 seconds.155.
- The charcoal is transported by road from the interior of Middle Juba and Lower Juba to the stockpiles and ports at Buur Gaabo and Kismayo, derives at least $7.5 million per year from checkpoint taxation of charcoal. The stockpiles located in Kismayo and Buur
Gaabo (125 km south-west of Kismayo) continue to be the source of illicit charcoal exports.
- charcoal is subject to checkpoint taxation by Al-Shabaab. the largest volume of exports was in February 2018, with more than 600,000 bags, while fewer than 300,000 bags were exported in other months.
- Monitoring Group estimates the current rate of charcoal exports from Somalia at 3 million bags per year
- Investigations by the Group have determined that these illicit charcoal exports have been taxed by the Jubaland administration at an average rate of more than $5 per bag, generating more than $15 million in annual revenue for Jubaland (see annex 7.2, (strictly confidential)). With a wholesale price of $50 per bag in the United Arab Emirates, as of August 2018, the estimated total market value of illicit charcoal exports is $150 million per year. 174.
- The process involved using false certificates of origin from Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana to import Somali charcoal, repackaging the charcoal from typical blue-green bags into white bags labeled as “Product of Iran”. The bags were then reloaded onto smaller, Islamic Republic of Iran-flagged dhows, and exported to Hamriyah port, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, using certificates of origin falsely indicating the country of manufacture of the charcoal as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- The illicit trade in charcoal from Somalia continues to be dominated by criminal networks linking Kismayo in Somalia and Dubai, With the assistance of accomplices, such as local consignees in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Oman, these criminal networks have profited greatly from violations of the charcoal ban
As election s are close, such reports come out this administration will continue to impose inhuman and degrading punishments on civilians, opposition groups and the press.
The current administration has to go.
The parliament that Ahmed Madobe’s handpicked and dictated numbers must be dissolved, re-corrected and distributed to the right inhabitants in the area. For example, the galje’el which are the indigenous inhabitants of the juba and middle Jubba were only assigned to 3 members of parliament while Ahmed Madobe gets 21 members for his clan. Even worse Tunni is given to nothing. Justice must be served. Equal distribution must be made.
If people in the region get justice, the hearts, and minds of the people achieved, then the coming administration should focus on waging war to Al-Shabaab to liberate the middle Jubba.
As long as there are injustices within the Jubaland administrations equal distribution of power, as long as criminals like Al-Shabaab, thugs, cartels, Iran and Jubaland state leaders operate in the region then defeating the transnational and international terrorists will be hard to achieve so Ahmed Madobe and his current administration has to go.
By: Marcus Marcus
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