Mogadishu, Somalia – Somalia has tightened security at checkpoints leading into Mogadishu, deploying additional police units as political tensions rise before a disputed May 15 deadline that opposition leaders say marks the end of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s mandate.
The security measures come as Villa Somalia has invited opposition leaders grouped under the Golaha Mustaqbalka, or Future Council, to talks on May 10, while the opposition has hardened its position, warning it will no longer recognise Mohamud after May 15.
Security sources told Somalia Today that federal authorities are reinforcing entry points around the capital to prevent armed movements linked to the political dispute from destabilising the city, where rival security factions have clashed during previous election crises.
The Somali Police Force said its commander, General Asad Osman Abdullahi, chaired a meeting with police station commanders in the Banadir region and ordered them to strengthen security at checkpoints across the capital.
He told officers to ensure that vehicles entering and leaving Mogadishu go through security procedures “to prevent any threat against stability”, according to a police statement.
“Asad instructed the officers to maintain the information-sharing system between the security agencies, which has played a visible role in preventing acts against security,” the statement said.
Security cordon
Security sources said the police sent reinforcements to checkpoints outside Mogadishu, where they joined units already stationed on the main roads into the capital.
The authorities also deployed additional forces in parts of Balcad and Afgoye, two strategic towns north and southwest of Mogadishu, the sources said.
The deployments appear aimed at stopping armed vehicles or soldiers from moving toward the capital as opposition politicians step up pressure on the government over the presidential term dispute.
The government has not publicly linked the security measures to the political standoff. But officials familiar with the operation said authorities were not taking any chances after Somalia’s last term-extension crisis led to armed clashes inside Mogadishu.
Opposition politicians have held a series of meetings in the capital in recent days to discuss their response if May 15 passes without a political settlement.
They argue that Mohamud’s four-year mandate expires on that date because he was elected on May 15, 2022, following a long-delayed indirect election held under tight security in Mogadishu.
The president’s allies say recent constitutional changes approved by parliament altered the political timetable and allow federal institutions to remain in office for five years, meaning the mandate ends on May 15, 2027, rather than May 15, 2026.
Mandate dispute
The dispute has deepened mistrust between the government and opposition figures, who accuse Mohamud of seeking a unilateral extension without broad political consensus.
In a statement issued on May 2, the opposition said it would regard Mohamud as “an ordinary citizen like the rest of the people” after May 15.
It also vowed to lead “peaceful resistance, mass mobilisation and national consultation” to prevent what it described as a constitutional vacuum and secure a legitimate government.
The opposition rejected what it called “elections by appointment” and said any federal vote must rest on political agreement, transparency, public trust, adequate security and credible technical arrangements.
Villa Somalia said Mohamud’s May 10 invitation followed consultations with politicians, former leaders, traditional elders and different sections of Somali society.
The presidency said the meeting would focus on “nationally decisive issues”, including elections, state-building, national unity and Somalia’s future political direction.
Opposition leaders have warned that any attempt to remain in office beyond the four-year term would trigger a legitimacy crisis. Some have suggested that unrest could follow if the government refuses to engage in genuine dialogue.
The authorities appear concerned that political rhetoric could encourage armed mobilisation, even though analysts and political sources say the opposition has limited capacity to bring major military pressure to bear on Mogadishu.
Clan loyalties and political networks still heavily influence Somalia’s security forces, making election disputes especially sensitive in the capital.
The government is also trying to keep its focus on the fight against Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked group that has repeatedly targeted Mogadishu with bombings, assassinations and raids.
Security officials say improved intelligence sharing, checkpoints and joint operations have helped reduce the scale of militant attacks in the capital, though the group remains capable of striking government, civilian and security targets.
Memories of 2021
The latest standoff has revived memories of April 2021, when former president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as Farmaajo, backed a two-year extension after his mandate expired and delayed elections remained unresolved.
The move split the security forces. Units loyal to the government clashed with soldiers aligned with opposition figures, including a group that called itself National Salvation.
Fighting spread through parts of Mogadishu, forcing civilians to flee and raising fears that the capital could slide back into wider conflict.
Under pressure from opposition leaders, civil society, regional states and international partners, Farmaajo later abandoned the extension and returned the country to an indirect electoral process.
That process eventually brought Mohamud back to power in May 2022, giving him a second term after he previously served as president from 2012 to 2017.
Many Mogadishu residents and Hawiye clan elders, whose influence remains central in the capital, oppose any return to armed confrontation and have urged political actors to settle the dispute through negotiations.
Elders have met opposition figures in recent days and are expected to continue efforts to mediate between the rival camps.
Political test
For Mohamud, the crisis comes as his government seeks to complete constitutional reforms and move Somalia toward universal suffrage, a long-promised goal repeatedly delayed by insecurity, institutional weakness and political division.
The president has argued that direct elections are essential to end Somalia’s reliance on elite bargaining and indirect voting, which has dominated politics since the collapse of the central state in 1991.
But opposition leaders say electoral reform cannot justify extending mandates without agreement among major political actors.
The European Union in Somalia has welcomed Mohamud’s invitation to the Future Council, saying it hoped for a positive response and a “constructive way forward”, especially on elections.
That response has added diplomatic pressure for dialogue as Somalia enters a tense political countdown between the planned May 10 talks and the May 15 deadline cited by the opposition.
The reinforced checkpoints around Mogadishu reflect the government’s effort to contain both security threats and political risks.
The immediate concern for authorities is to prevent any armed movement toward the capital.
The wider challenge is to prevent Somalia’s latest constitutional dispute from escalating into another confrontation between rival factions within the security forces.
