MOGADISHU, Somalia – Deepening clan-based power struggles threaten to fracture the leadership of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab jihadist group, potentially undermining its operational cohesion as it explores a strategic shift towards governance, security sources familiar with the group’s internal dynamics told Caasimada Online.

The core of the conflict pits established leaders from the Dir clan, including current emir Ahmed Diriye, against prominent figures from the Hawiye clan who have long served as the group’s public face.

This internal friction surfaces as the Al-Qaeda-linked group reportedly considers evolving its tactics, drawing inspiration from the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and the political maneuvering of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria.

Deepening clan divides

Historically, Al-Shabaab’s top leadership has often hailed from the Dir clan, particularly elements originating from the northern region of Somaliland. Ahmed Diriye, also known as Abu Ubaidah, who succeeded Ahmed Godane (alias Abu Zubeyr) after his death in a 2014 US airstrike, continues this trend. Godane himself was from Somaliland.

However, the group’s most visible figures have frequently been Hawiye clan members, including long-time spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage (Ali Dheere), intelligence chief Mahad Karate, and senior commander Yusuf Haji Nurow (Kabakudukade). This division – with Dir leadership operating more covertly while Hawiye figures handle public messaging and operations – now appears to be a significant fault line.

The complex clan system in Somalia remains a powerful force in social and political life, influencing alliances and conflicts. While Al-Shabaab publicly espouses a pan-Islamic ideology rejecting the claim, these internal dynamics suggest clan affiliations remain deeply entrenched.

Sources indicate that Al-Shabaab’s leadership, encouraged by events in Afghanistan and Syria, has begun exploring pathways beyond pure insurgency toward establishing a more formal administrative or governing structure. HTS, previously Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, has notably consolidated control over Idlib province, operating a quasi-government.

This potential strategic pivot, however, has reportedly inflamed rather than unified the group, exposing ideological and clan-based fissures. The ambition to govern necessitates a unified front and transparent leadership, qualities now seemingly undermined by internal rivalry.

Whispers of potential peace negotiations, possibly facilitated by international actors including Norway, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States, add another layer of complexity. While the status and seriousness of any such talks remain unconfirmed, the mere possibility raises critical questions about representation.

The publicly prominent Hawiye faction, led by figures like Ali Dheere and Mahad Karate, would appear logically positioned to lead any potential negotiations. This prospect alarms the less visible Dir leadership under Diriye, who reportedly fear being sidelined in crucial future decisions.

“Al-Shabaab has been fighting for over 15 years,” noted Fatima Ahmed, an independent analyst focusing on Horn of Africa security. “Any shift towards talks or governance fundamentally challenges its internal power balance, especially given the historical clan dynamics.”

Leadership promotes new faces

Feeling his authority potentially weakened by his lower public profile, Diriye has allegedly initiated moves to elevate individuals from his own Dir clan base, particularly those from Somaliland, into more prominent roles.

Figures such as Abwaan Nageeye Ali Khalif, Abdiwahid Gama’did, and Sheikh Adan Sunne, described as a hardline cleric, have reportedly become increasingly visible in Al-Shabaab’s media output, appearing in videos, at training camps, and delivering sermons. This is interpreted as an effort to create new public faces loyal to Diriye and representing the Dir leadership faction.

Somaliland, a self-declared republic seeking independence from Somalia since 1991, is not internationally recognized but maintains its own government and security forces. The prominence of figures from this region within Al-Shabaab’s core leadership highlights the complex interplay between the group’s ideology and Somalia’s fragmented political landscape.

Promoting these new figures has reportedly alarmed the established Hawiye leaders, who fear gradually eroding their influence, potentially mirroring past internal purges. They are reminded of the 2013 killings of co-founders Ibrahim al-Afghani and Ma’allin Burhaan, reportedly on Godane’s orders, which also prompted the high-profile defection of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a significant figure in Somali Islamism, to the government.

Interpreting Nageeye, Gama’did, and Sunne’s elevation as a strategic move to marginalize them, the Hawiye leaders—Ali Dheere, Mahad Karate, and Kabakudukade—are said to be implementing a two-pronged counter-strategy.

Firstly, they are reportedly intensifying recruitment efforts within their own Hawiye sub-clans to build loyalist fighting units. Secondly, they are working to reassert their indispensability within Al-Shabaab’s operational structure and as potential interlocutors for external actors, including the Somali government and the international community.

A break with recruitment tradition

This reported clan-based recruitment drive significantly departs Al-Shabaab’s traditional strategy. The group historically avoided concentrating recruitment within the large, politically powerful clans (like Hawiye, Dir, and Darod) from which its leadership often emerged.

Instead, it frequently drew rank-and-file fighters from numerous but often politically marginalized clans, such as the Jareerweyne and Rahanweyn communities. This was seen as a tactic to prevent powerful clan militias from forming within Al-Shabaab and potentially challenging the leadership. The shift towards Hawiye sub-clan recruitment suggests a calculated risk by factional leaders prioritizing internal loyalty over established group doctrine.

The outcome of this escalating internal rivalry remains uncertain. However, it signals significant instability within one of Africa’s most persistent and dangerous jihadist organizations, potentially impacting its future operations and strategic direction across Somalia and the wider region.

WASHINGTON – Fears are mounting that Al-Shabaab, widely considered Africa’s most dangerous terrorist group, is strengthening its capabilities via foreign backing – a development that could heighten risks to vital maritime trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, a new report warns.

The Somalia-based extremist group is reportedly forging deeper ties with Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, commonly known as the Houthis. This nascent partnership could equip Al-Shabaab to target commercial shipping with drones or potentially missiles, according to a new assessment from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The CSIS report, released Friday, characterizes Al-Shabaab as operating like a “quasi-state” and posing a direct threat to U.S. interests, forecasting an expansion of the group’s capabilities by 2025.

The analysis cites a senior advisor to the anti-Houthi coalition alleging that the Houthis intend to supply Al-Shabaab with advanced weaponry specifically for targeting vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden.

Benefits of state sponsorship

“The Houthis could provide, or may have already provided, Al-Shabaab the benefits of state sponsorship,” the report asserts, highlighting potential military training and the transfer of drone technology.

For more than a year, U.S. naval forces have actively countered attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis against commercial vessels in the region.

The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea began after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and the ensuing war in Gaza. While the group claims its targets are linked to Israel or its allies (notably the U.S.), numerous targeted vessels have lacked any clear connection to the conflict.

Al-Shabaab’s entry into maritime attacks would dramatically complicate international efforts to secure vital shipping lanes through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.

Further evidence of deepening ties between Al-Shabaab and the Houthis could emerge as early as Thursday, when AFRICOM Commander General Michael Langley is scheduled to testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington.

Countering Al-Shabaab has long been a central mission for AFRICOM and a key U.S. military priority in Africa. The Al-Qaeda affiliate has fought a bloody insurgency for over 20 years aiming to overthrow the Somali government and impose its rule. Despite facing Somali government offensives, the group has proven remarkably resilient.

While AFRICOM has conducted numerous airstrikes and deployed special forces to advise and assist Somali partners, the CSIS report contends these efforts have failed to significantly degrade Al-Shabaab’s overall strength. The group is estimated to command 7,000 to 12,000 fighters and maintains control over significant swathes of southern Somalia.

Al-Shabaab’s strong revenue 

Al-Shabaab generates an estimated $100 million-plus annually through diverse means, including extensive taxation networks. Furthermore, the report notes, the group funnels funds to other Al-Qaeda affiliates, demonstrating considerable financial clout.

The CSIS analysis cautions, however, that simply intensifying U.S. airstrikes could backfire, citing the group’s deadly 2020 attack on a military base in Kenya—which killed a U.S. soldier and two American contractors—during a previous peak in U.S. drone operations.

“Conflict is likely to escalate should President Trump resume his strategy of heavy strikes,” the report explicitly warns.

While the report refrains from offering specific policy prescriptions for tackling Somalia’s security crisis or weakening Al-Shabaab, it underscores the necessity of a comprehensive strategy integrating military, diplomatic, and economic aid for Somalia’s vulnerable government. Ultimately, the analysis concludes, Al-Shabaab “will remain a long-term threat.”

MOGADISHU, Somalia—Somalia is embarking on a high-stakes bid to unlock potential uranium wealth. It is partnering with a domestic conglomerate and joining the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, in a move aimed at economic transformation but shadowed by deep-seated security and governance hurdles.

The government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inked a preliminary deal late last year granting Mogadishu-based Almond Energy status as its strategic partner for developing the Horn of Africa nation’s mineral resources, with a sharp focus on uranium.

The agreement, which was approved by parliament shortly after with minimal public attention, positions the company centrally in Somalia’s nascent mining strategy.

Almond Energy will now serve as the primary advisor to the Ministry of Petroleum and Minerals, headed by Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed.

Under the reported terms, Mogadishu intends to overhaul its mining regulations, replacing an outdated 1984 law with a new framework based on principles drafted by Almond Energy.

Almond Energy: A diversified partner

Established in 2019, Almond Energy belongs to the broader Almond Group Holdings, a diversified Somali business with interests spanning aviation (Almond Air and Logistics, servicing UN and Somali forces), hospitality (Almond Resort hotels), and logistics.

The group, employing around 400 staff and with offices in Mogadishu and Nairobi, regularly receives UN supply contracts.

While experienced in logistics and services, Almond Energy’s specific track record in the technically demanding field of uranium exploration appears limited. Nonetheless, the partnership assigns it a leading role in charting the course for Somalia’s mining sector, including designating key exploration territories.

A joint venture is envisioned, with Almond Energy initially holding a dominant stake (around two-thirds) and the government retaining the rest.

A cornerstone of this initiative was Somalia’s formal entry into the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in September 2024, preceding the Almond Energy deal by mere weeks. Negotiations underpinning the partnership reportedly commenced before President Mohamud assumed office in 2022.

Technically supported by Almond Energy and Kenyan experts—Kenya has been an IAEA member since 1965—Somalia’s membership grants access to vital technical expertise and potential funding. Critically, it also commits the fragile state to the IAEA’s rigorous safeguards and inspection regimes, a significant undertaking given its circumstances.

IAEA records confirm that a Somali delegation, including Ministry Director General Arabey Abdi Hashi and Almond Energy CEO Abdifatah Mohamed, alongside Kenyan consultant Willy Murithi, visited the IAEA’s Vienna headquarters last year to finalize the membership. Further engagements between Mogadishu and the agency are expected this month.

Potential rewards vs. Pervasive risks

The government’s push draws on historical data, notably a 1985 IAEA report referenced by Almond Energy, suggesting Somalia could harbor uranium deposits up to 150,000 tonnes. Early exploration by US, Italian, and German firms in the 1960s and 70s identified promise, particularly within the central Mudug region.

However, formidable obstacles loom. Decades of conflict halted initial exploration efforts in the early 1990s. Today, instability persists, with the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab controlling swathes of territory, including potential exploration zones in Mudug. The ongoing insurgency severely hampers prospects for secure, large-scale resource development.

Furthermore, establishing robust regulatory, environmental, and safety protocols for uranium extraction represents a monumental task for a nation still consolidating its institutions and grappling with limited capacity.

The venture has piqued tentative regional interest. Associates of Kenyan President William Ruto have reportedly shown curiosity, potentially eyeing Somalia’s uranium for Kenya’s own nuclear power aspirations centered around a proposed plant in Uyombo. Yet, this outlook is clouded by proposed changes within Kenya, including the potential dissolution of its Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA).

Somalia may also seek to engage Turkey, a key strategic ally with significant investment and influence in the country and possessing its nuclear energy program. [Link to reputable source on Turkey-Somalia relations].

While tapping its uranium could offer Somalia a potent economic lever, the path forward is laden with profound technical, security, financial, and governance challenges that Mogadishu and Almond Energy must navigate before any potential wealth can be unearthed.

Ankara, Turkey – Turkey is significantly increasing its military assistance to Somalia in the ongoing fight against terrorism, deploying advanced combat drones, and intensifying military training and defense cooperation, according to a report in Türkiye Daily.

The Turkish newspaper stated that Ankara has supplied the Somali government with cutting-edge unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) from Turkish defense manufacturer Baykar, including the well-regarded Bayraktar TB2 and the more sophisticated Akinci drones.

This move is a key component of broader efforts to bolster Somalia’s national security as it continues to combat the persistent threat posed by the Al-Shabaab militant group.

The Bayraktar TB2 drones were initially deployed to Somalia in 2022 to support reconnaissance missions and conduct targeted strikes against insurgent elements.

These drones have proven effective in providing vital intelligence and executing precise attacks, significantly aiding the Somali National Army (SNA) in its operations against Al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda that has waged a violent insurgency in Somalia for over a decade.

More recently, Akinci UCAVs were delivered to Somalia via Turkish military A400M transport aircraft and have already commenced operations. The Akinci offers enhanced capabilities compared to the TB2, including a larger payload capacity, longer flight endurance, and more advanced sensors, enabling more complex and sustained missions against the militants.

Furthermore, discussions are reportedly underway regarding the potential supply of T129 Atak helicopters to Somalia. These attack helicopters would further enhance the SNA’s operational mobility and firepower in counter-terrorism efforts, providing crucial close air support for ground forces battling Al-Shabaab.

These advanced aerial assets are now actively employed by the Somali government to protect its forces and combat the Al-Shabaab insurgency, which remains a significant threat to the country’s stability, carrying out frequent bombings, assassinations, and attacks on government and civilian targets.

Turkish military training mission intensifies

Beyond drone deployments, Turkish forces are providing extensive military training to Somali soldiers through the Turkish Military Training Mission in Somalia (STGK). This mission works closely with the Somali government to develop the skills and professionalism of the SNA.

However, sources cited by Türkiye Daily indicate that Turkish military personnel will not participate in direct combat operations.

Their primary role is to provide technical assistance and operational guidance to Somali forces engaged in counter-terrorism efforts. Security at the Turkish military training facility in Somalia has also been heightened in response to recent regional security concerns.

Somalia is among 47 nations receiving military assistance from Turkey, underscoring Ankara’s growing role as a security partner in various regions.

Turkey has been steadily increasing its influence in the strategically important Horn of Africa, directly providing defense support, military cooperation, training, and weapons, aligning with its strategic interests.

The Horn of Africa’s proximity to key shipping lanes and its geopolitical significance in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden make it a region of considerable international interest.

This increased military support follows a recent assassination attempt on Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Shortly after the incident, he visited Ankara to discuss the situation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to a statement from the Turkish Directorate of Communications, the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and exchanged views on regional and international matters.

During their meeting at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s strong commitment to Somalia’s peace, security, and unity. He emphasized that Turkish support would continue until lasting peace and stability are achieved in Somalia and the broader region.

Erdogan further stated that cooperation between Somalia and Turkey in the fight against terrorism would continue to deepen, reiterating Turkey’s unwavering support for the Somali people in their struggle against terrorism. He also highlighted the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation in economy, trade, security, and defense.

Turkey views its presence and support in Somalia as crucial for maintaining its strategic position in the Horn of Africa. Turkey aims to play a significant role in stabilizing and securing the region without direct combat involvement by providing military training, UCAV capabilities, and potentially helicopters.

This approach allows Ankara to project influence and support its allies while minimizing direct military engagement on the ground.