Hargaisa (Caasimada Online) – A deal that Somaliland has struck with Ethiopia to lease land near the southern entrance to the Red Sea will help “secure freedom of navigation” for shipping that has faced attack along the busy waterway, according to the breakaway country’s President.
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi emphasized that this agreement, announced in January, is a crucial step towards supporting international efforts to ensure safe passage through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
The accord grants Ethiopia access to territory on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for formally recognizing Somaliland’s self-declared independence. President Bihi Abdi told The Financial Times “Ethiopia will build a naval military base and have commercial ships, and in exchange, Ethiopia will give us recognition — that’s the basics.”
Strategic interests and regional reactions
Ethiopia, landlocked since its 1993 split with Eritrea, views the Somaliland deal as a strategic move to reduce its dependence on Djibouti for sea access. A senior Ethiopian official involved in the talks expressed optimism, noting, “It’s just a matter of realpolitik and necessity.”
However, the agreement has sparked significant opposition. Somalia’s President has vehemently opposed the deal, asserting that “not an inch” of Somalia’s territory would be signed away.
Additionally, the US, EU, Arab League, and Egypt have raised concerns that the deal could escalate conflicts in a region already troubled by terrorism and war.
Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for Eastern Africa with Crisis Group, acknowledged the “blowback” the deal has created but noted that Ethiopia is reluctant to abandon it.
Despite its instability, the Horn of Africa, rich in strategic value, has attracted interest from global powers, including China, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE.
Economic impact and investments
The partnership between Somaliland and Ethiopia, particularly the significant investments from Dubai-based DP World, is expected to have a substantial economic impact.
DP World has invested $300 million into Berbera and its broader economic zone, which represents about 75% of Somaliland’s government revenue. The UAE, which controls the airport in Berbera, is also setting up a naval base there.
President Bihi Abdi envisions that international recognition could unlock a wave of investments into Somaliland’s $3.4 billion economy, which relies on sea trade, remittances, and camel livestock. “Recognition would be a transformative economic catalyst,” he confidently stated.
Historical context and challenges
Somaliland’s quest for recognition began in 1960 when it gained independence from Britain before uniting with the former Italian colony of Somalia.
After a decade-long independence war and the fall of Somali dictator Siad Barre, Somaliland declared independence again in 1991.
Despite achieving relative stability for its 5.7 million people, Somaliland faces challenges, particularly in its eastern regions where some clan leaders want to rejoin Somalia.
The breakaway region has its army, elected parliament, and currency and issues passports. However, Mogadishu considers it part of Somalia, and no country has formally recognized its independence.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has not been without its challenges. It has faced domestic opposition, including from Somaliland’s defense minister, who resigned in protest.
There are also concerns that the agreement could lead to new conflicts in the already unstable region, where Somalia is battling the al-Shabaab insurgency, and Ethiopia is recovering from a civil war in Tigray.
The US, an ally of Mogadishu, expressed concern that the agreement could disrupt efforts against Islamist militancy.
President Bihi Abdi dismissed these concerns as “baseless,” stating that the deal could prevent potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by providing Addis Ababa with needed sea access.
“We’ve been working towards international recognition of our independent status for over 33 years,” Bihi Abdi said. “We’re ready.
